First, thanks for that cogent analysis.

The thing is, what is a non-MAGA Republican for? Aren't they Manchin/Sinema Democrats who irrationally refuse to change parties? Isn't their best play to join that party to lend their influence to it, vastly strengthening that element in it? That would be especially effective if they went there as a group.

They could perhaps start a new centrist party, but we all know how that goes in this country. Even if they were eventually successful, their leaving the Republican Party would in the meantime give unending victory in national elections to a Democratic Party without their countervailing influence.